Construction equipment: an increase in the share of the foreign market, improving demand in the domestic market

1.2024 construction equipment Review: an excavator of domestic sales to achieve nine months in a row Positive growth, five hosts of the plant, an improvement in the profitability of the year-K-Date of the construction equipment of the plate, 21%increased, ahead of the engineering sector by 14%, ahead of the CSI 300 by 18%.

2.2024-on January-November, an excavator, loader, forklift, grader sales growth, taps, air working platforms, air working trucks, road rinks, asphalt layers reduced sales. In 2024, in January-November, the total sales of excavators amounted to 1817,620,000 units, increasing by 2% per year (sales in November increased by 18% in annual calculus for 8 consecutive months of positive growth). Including, sales in the domestic market amounted to 91,231 units, increasing by 11% in annual calculus (sales growth in November by 21% in annual calculus, 9 months in a row of positive growth); Export sales amounted to 90,531 units, decreasing by 6% in annual calculus (sales growth in November by 15% in annual calculus, 4 months in a row of positive growth).

3.2024 The first three quarters, five HOST Factory Enombases is obvious, the mother’s net profit to achieve positive growth (Mother's net profit: Liugong 60%, Shantui shares 34%, Sany Heavy Industry 20%, XCMG technicians 10%, ZOOMLION 10%); The main components of Hengli leading hydraulic performance won from digging a marginal revival machine, the first three quarters of the mother of net profit in annual calculus of an increase of 2%; Hangfork Group, ANHOH HELI, NULI shares of net profit, which is 21%, 12%, 1%; The tower of the leasing machine of the leading construction vehicles in real estate is obviously dragging, the first three quarters of net profit, which are at -630 million yuan.

4.2025 Engineering machines Prospects: Exports of the restoration boom (Europe and the United States is expected to improve, the belt and the path of demand is strong), internal demand to the bottom (excavator of update of demand release, domestic brands continue to improve the share of the market) the foreign market prospects: Europe and the United States and the United States The market restoration boom, the belt and the path of demand are strong, leading companies continue to improve the share of foreign income.

(a) Party of demand: November China (+4%), Europe (+3%), Japan (+1%), Indonesia (+0.4%) of the hours of the clock began a year after year, positive growth, as expected, is expected in 2025 The market is gradually being restored to Europe and the USA, in which the European construction market is expected to be gradually at the entrance to recovery; The waist and path of countries is expected to be at the entrance in high speed of demand, as expected, the construction of the market space is more than 30 billion US dollars.

(b) profit: in export models, the share of medium and large excavators with a larger cost is about 48%in general, which is higher than the share of domestic sales (34%); The share of the foreign business of the five main OEM manufacturers continues to improve, and as of 2024H1, Sany Heavy Industry, Shantui Stock, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Liugong Machinery is 61%, 56%, 49% 8% and 44%, respectively ; The share of the foreign CPI and the internal PPI of the forks continues, the profitability of export enterprises is expected to continue to win.

(c) The cost of costs: the dollar in relation to Yuanu ranged higher, the general fluctuation in the cost of delivery.

The prospects of the domestic market: the beginning of the renewal cycle of excavators + trad-in, leading companies continue to increase the market share; It is expected that by 2025 excavators, taps, concrete machines, forks, internal demand will improve.

(a) Demand: the beginning of the new cycle of renewal of excavators is expected, and it is expected that in 2025 the domestic sales of excavators will grow by 12%, and total sales will grow by 11%. The industry concentration of the domestic market of excavators continues to improve (CR4 = 61.5% in 2020, everyone becomes Chinese brands; CR4 in January-October 2023 will increase even more to 68.4%), the share of domestic capital continues to grow.

(b) Profit: The current cycle of each soldier plant controls capital expenses well, operating capacities improve, reduction in speed of turnover has decreased compared to the last period of the decline in the industry, profitability improves. As of 2024q3, the net profit of the five main OEM manufacturers was 10% for Zoomlion, 9% for Sany, 8% for XCMG, 7% for Shantui and 6% for Liugong; The profitability of own capital was 12% for Shantui, 9% for XCMG, 8% for Liugong, 7% for Sany and 6% for Zoomlion.

(c) costs: prices for steel raw materials continue to decline.